影子银行对货币政策影响的理论与实证分析  

The Impact of Shadow Banking on Monetary Policy Effects Based on The Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：王振[1,2] 曾辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院 [2]中国人民银行

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2014年第12期58-67,共10页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"影子银行与正规银行风险交叉传染研究"(项目编号:13CJY129)阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：本文通过引入银行和影子银行的信用创造和流动性创造功能,对传统的IS-LM模型进行修正来分析影子银行对货币政策的影响,并基于向量自回归模型(SVAR)选用我国2003年1月至2013年6月的月度数据进行实证分析影子银行对货币政策的影响。理论和实证分析结果表明,影子银行的发展对货币政策传导机制如信贷、利率的传导效果造成影响;中央银行货币政策调控难度加大,应执行更为谨慎的货币政策;影子银行的发展对经济具有扩张作用,但也存在影子银行资金不具有长期效应等问题,应客观对待,注意防控其风险。The paper built a modified IS-LM model by introducing banking and shadow banking credit creation and liquidity creation function to analyze the impact of shadow banking on monetary policy. Based on vector auto-regression model （SVAR）, this paper conducted the empirical analysis on the influence of shadow banking on monetary policy by using the monthly data of June between 2003 and 2013. Theoretical and empirical analysis shows that the development of the shadow banking system affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism such as the conduction effect of credit and interest rate, which makes it more difficult for the central bank to make monetary policy than before. The central bank should adopt more cautious monetary policy. This paper pointed out that the development of the shadow banking system had two- sided impact on the economy, and we should treat it objectively while controlling the risk.

关 键 词：影子银行 货币政策 IS-LM模型 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]