四大牧区畜禽业温室气体排放估算及影响因素分解  

Estimation and Effecting Factor Decomposition of Green House Gas Emission of Animal Husbandry Industry in Four Pastoral Areas

作　　者：陈瑶[1,2] 尚杰[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]东北农业大学出版中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [3]黑龙江科技大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第12期89-95,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于低碳经济的制造业绿色创新体系及知识流动研究"(编号:71073041);"基于要素禀赋与政府规制的区域环保产业竞争力研究"(编号:70973016/G312);教育部博士点基金项目"基于TRIZ理论的中国农村生物质能产业链整合模式及支撑体系研究"(编号:20120062110015);黑龙江省哲学社会科学项目"低碳经济框架下黑龙江省低碳经济增长方式转变的路径研究"(编号:12E058)

摘　　要：畜牧业作为重要的产业部门,在满足人们生活物质要求的同时,成为全球温室气体排放的主要源头。本文以我国四大牧区为研究对象,量化测算其2001-2011年畜禽温室气体排放量,并运用LMDI模型对其影响因素进行定量分解,并针对性的提出畜禽温室气体减排的对策建议。结果表明:内蒙古、西藏和青海牧区的畜禽温室气体排放整体呈现增加趋势,其分别由2001年的1 609.81万t、1 230.64万t和1 019.94万t增加到2011年的2 617.71万t、1 350.10万t和1 065.43万t,新疆牧区则呈现先增加后下降的趋势,由2001年的1 666.37万t增加到2006年的2 057.79万t,随后又递减到2011年的1 419.91万t,四大牧区的年均增长率分别为6.26%、0.97%、0.45%和-1.48%;经济水平的提升是四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放的最主要因素,相比基期2001年,其使得四大牧区分别产生了123.64%、384.41%、1 715.50%和279.49%的温室气体排放增量;经济效率对四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放具有较强的抑制作用,对四大牧区畜禽温室气体的减排效应分别达到了73.08%、199.04%、955.66%和503.25%,农业产业结构因素和劳动力因素对四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放的影响因地而异,其中农业产业结构因素对四大牧区畜禽温室气体排放的影响度分别为415.32万t、-154.96万t、48.76万t和30.72万t,劳动力因素的影响度分别为83.05万t、52.98万t、-348.96万t和274.32万t。最后,本文基于研究结论,总体上从规模养殖、科学养殖和清洁养殖三方面提出促进四大牧区畜禽温室气体减排的对策建议,并针对各个牧区的实际情况提出一些可操作的符合区域畜牧业发展实际的对策。Animal husbandry industry as an important industrial department, not only met the people＇ s material life requirements, but also became the main source of global greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we took the four major pastoral areas of China as the research objects, and measured the 2001 - 2011 livestock emissions of greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, LMDI model was used for quantitative analysis on the influence factors, and proposed the suggestions for livestock greenhouse gas emission reduction. The results showed that： the pastoral livestock greenhouse gas emissions of Inner Mongolia, Tibet and Qinghai presented the increasing trend, in 2001, the indexes were 1 609.81 million tons, 1 230.64 million tons and 1 019.94 million tons, respectively, in 2011 they were increased to 2 617.71 million tons, 1 350.10 million tons and 1 065.43 million tons. But in the pastoral area of Xinjiang, it showed a downward trend after the first increasing, increased from 1 666.37 million tons in 2001 to 2 057.79 million tons in 2006, then decreased to 1 419.91 million tons in 2011. An annual average increaseing rate of four pastoral areas was 6.26%, 0.97%, 0.45% and - 1.48%, respectively, and the main reason for livestock and poultry greenhouse gas emissions in four major pastoral areas was the economic development. Compared with 2001, it made the four major pastoral areas produced 123.64%, 384.41%, 1 715.50% and 279.49%, respectively increment of greenhouse gas emissions; economic efficiency had strong inhibitory effects on livestock greenhouse gas emissions in four major pastoral areas, and its emission reduction effects on livestock greenhouse gas were 73.08%, 199.04%, 955.66% and 503.25% respectively, in the four major pastoral areas. The effect of agricultural industrial structure and labor force factors on livestock and pouhry greenhouse gas emissions in four major pastoral areas varied by regions. The agricultural structure factors which affected livestock and poultry greenhouse gas emissions in the four major pastor

关 键 词：畜禽业 温室气体排放 LMDI模型 减排政策 

分 类 号：S168[农业科学—农业气象学]