中国城镇化的关键影响因素及其效应分析  

Analysis on the Key Influence Factors of Urbanization and Its Effects in China

作　　者：马孝先[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第12期117-124,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：山东省自然基金项目"基于空间效应计量方法的山东区域经济发展内生性研究"(编号:ZR2012GM010);国家社科基金"企业金融衍生业务风险测度及管控研究"(编号:10BGL054);山东省社科规划项目"金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新研究"(编号:14AWTJ01-17)

摘　　要：揭示城镇化进程中的关键影响因素及其作用路径,对于实施我国"十二五"时期经济发展规划中的城镇化战略,实现经济社会的健康发展,有着重要的现实意义。基于人口城镇化、经济城镇化和社会城镇化等三个纬度的城镇化度量指标,再加上考察城镇化影响因素的诸多变量难以寻找单一数据指标进行衡量,使得传统计量方法进行城镇化关键影响因素的分析存在一定局限性。本文在城镇化影响机制理论的基础上,基于结构方程模型方法,采用全国282个地级城市的统计数据,对我国城镇化的影响因素及其效应进行实证分析,探求推进我国城镇化进程的关键影响因素及其效应。研究结果表明,要素投入、消费需求、金融深化、空间聚集、人口素质和政府作用等因素对于城镇化的发展都发挥了积极作用;要素投入、人口素质和空间聚集等经济发展因素可以促进城镇化程度的提高,并有显著的影响;而政府作用、消费需求和金融深化对城镇化程度也有正向的作用,但目前的数据显示,其影响水平并不显著。从总体上讲,生产要素的投入是促进城镇化的根本因素。而2002年与2011年数据对比分析结果显示,城镇的人口素质和城镇的空间聚集效应等在城镇化进程中也逐步发挥了关键作用。据此,建议决策当局在制定和实施城镇化战略时,应根据结构模型所展现的路径关系和城镇化进程中的内部路径机理,协同使用相关的政策及各项因素的促进激励措施,优先保证内生驱动因素作用的有效发挥。As part of the ＇ twelfth five - year plan＇ of the economic development in China, urbanization is an important strategy. It is of great practical significance for the healthy operation of the economy and the society to find out the key influential factors and the resulting effects of the urbanization process. There are some limitations for the traditional statistical methods to examine the relevant influential factors because of the difficulties in the measurement of urbanization with the multiple dimensions of economic urbanization, population urbanization and social urbanization and in the setting of a single indicator to represent multiple variables of a number of influential factors. Based on the study of the influence mechanism theory of urbanization and the structural equation model method, this paper collects nearly 10 years of statistical data of 282 cities in China and analyses empirically the critical influential factors of urbanization and its effects. The results show that the process of urbanization can be promoted by many economic development factors including the input of the factors of production, the consumer demand, the deepening of finance, the spatial clustering, the educational quality of people, and the role of the government, among which the input of the factors of production, the educational quality of people and the spatial clustering appear to have significant influence, while the role of the government, the consumer demand and the deepening of finance appear to have positive influence but the level of influence is not significant. Generally speaking, the input of factors of production is the basic factor in the promotion of the urbanization. The comparison of the data of 2002 and 2011 shows that urban population quality and urban space aggregation effects gradually play more critical roles in the urbanization process. We suggest that decision -making authorities should make collaborative use of relevant policies and the incentive measures of various promotion factors according to the

关 键 词：城镇化 结构方程模型 影响路径 效应分析 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]