EMD方法在广西夏季降水量预测中的应用  

Application of EMD Method in Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Guangxi

作　　者：马军[1] 陆甲[2] 赵金彪[3] 

机构地区：[1]广西气象信息中心,广西南宁530022 [2]广西气候中心,广西南宁530022 [3]广西气象台,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2014年第3期31-35,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目2011GXNSFA018011

摘　　要：对广西夏季降水量进行EMD分解后,利用均生函数相关法,比较不同IMF分量组合建模的预测,不同组合试验预测显示,用前二个IMF分量组合建模预测是最佳的组合方案。经对2001—2010年共10年广西夏季降水量实际预测检验表明,趋势预测准确率达70%以上,对夏季降水量预测较有参考价值。为基层台站的气候预测及服务提供一个客观预测方法。Based on the EMD and Mean Generation Function relation method, it is put forward that the best composition plan to predict is to use the first 2 IMF components to create a prediction model by the comparsing of the prediction effects of models composed with different IMF components. The result showed that the accuracy rate of tendency prediction from 2001 to 2010 was above 70%, whoch was valuable to the summer prediction to provided a simple and convenient operation method for meteorological service.

关 键 词：EMD IMF分量 夏季降水量 气候趋势预测 广西 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]