中国名贵木材价格指数编制方法与实证研究  

Compilation and Empirical Research on Chinese Valuable Timber Price Index

作　　者：赖宝全[1] 李彩云[2] 李文[1] 张颂[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连商品交易所生猪期货及商品指数工作小组,辽宁大连116023 [2]大连商品交易所研究中心,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2014年第11期30-37,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：以全国主要木材交易市场2011年3月至2014年3月的数据为基础,采用加权平均法和属性解析法编制国内外首支名贵木材价格指数,对名贵木材价格的泡沫化程度、影响因素及其收益结构进行了定量分析。研究表明,加权平均法和属性解析法编制的指数相关性很高,保证了编制方法的稳健性;《濒危野生动植物物种国际贸易公约》禁止部分珍稀名贵木材砍伐和流通,政策冲击导致名贵木材价格迅速泡沫化;下游消费对名贵木材价格具有显著的拉动作用,名贵木材市场与股票市场呈现替代关系;价格高、市场广泛关注的明星产品和红木类名贵木材并不存在长期的超指数收益。In this paper, we obtain the first valuable timber price index at home and abroad based on transaction data of the main timber markets from March 2011 to March 2014, which is compiled by weighted average method and characteristic analysis method respectively. We use some quantitative method to test bubble in the index, analysis the factors of price, and probe the yield structure. The results show that the index compiled with different method correlate highly. There is a significant bubble in the index caused by the CITES which prohibits felling and commerce of Mahogany. The price of valuable timber is pulled by demand of downstream consumption, but has the negative correlation with stock market. Cochin rosewood and Mahogany are very valuable and attractive, but do not have excess revenue than valuable timber price index.

关 键 词：消费升级 另类投资 泡沫检验 明星效应 红木效应 

分 类 号：C813[社会学—统计学] F326.2