现金等价货币总量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性——来自中美两国的经验证据  

The Validity of Currency Equivalent Aggregates as the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy:the Empirical Evidence from China and America

作　　者：黄宪[1] 夏仕龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2014年第11期29-35,88,共7页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"完善宏观金融调控体系研究--基于针对性;灵活性和前瞻性的视角"(项目编号:12&ZD046);国家自然科学基金项目"货币政策传导的银行资本渠道"(项目编号:71073113)

摘　　要：由于简单加总的货币供应量M2的局限性,学术界和实务界一直在探讨更贴近宏观经济变动的货币总量测度法,但一直没有定论。本文首先对现金等价货币总量、迪维西亚货币总量、简单加总货币总量这3种不同测度法下货币总量的合理性及其优劣进行理论上的比较分析,然后通过边限协整检验和自回归分布滞后协整估计的实证研究,分析中美两国按照不同测度法所测算的货币总量需求函数的稳定性。实证检验的结果发现,两国现金等价货币总量的需求函数都比各自的迪维西亚货币总量、简单加总货币总量的需求函数稳定,而且在每种测度法下,中国货币总量的需求函数都比美国货币总量的需求函数稳定。本研究结论说明,现金等价货币总量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性强于迪维西亚货币总量、简单加总货币总量,且这一结论具有一定的国际普适性。但就中美两国而言,货币总量更适合作为中国的中介目标。This paper firstly compares Currency Equivalent Aggregates,Divisia Monetary Aggregates and Simple Sum Aggregates the three different monetary aggregates in theory.Secondly we use the bounds testing and the ARDL approach to cointegration to investigate the stability of the money demand function of Currency Equivalent Aggregates,Divisia Monetary Aggregates and Simple Sum Aggregates in China and America.We find out that the money demand function of Currency Equivalent Aggregates in both countries is more stable than that of their respective Divisia Monetary Aggregates and Simple Sum Aggregates.Under each measurement method,the money demand function of China is more stable than that of America.The conclusion of the test of controllability is as same as the above.These conclusions of our study illustrate that Currency Equivalent Aggregates is more valid as the intermediate target of monetary policy than Divisia Monetary Aggregates and Simple Sum Aggregates.Moreover,this conclusion has some universality.But money supply is more suitable as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China than in America.

关 键 词：货币中介目标 现金等价货币总量 迪维西亚货币总量 货币需求函数的稳定性 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学] F827.12