引入忠诚度变量的城际出行方式动态选择行为研究  

Research on Intercity Travel Mode Dynamic Choice Behavior with Introduced Loyalty Variable

作　　者：吴麟麟[1] 卢海琴[1] 汪洋[2] 张明岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]江苏大学电气信息工程学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2014年第11期123-129,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(11YJA630152);江苏省六大人才高峰项目(2011-2BZZ-043)

摘　　要：针对中国城市群的快速形成与发展,结合城市群城际出行特点,研究城市群城际出行方式选择行为。基于非集计理论,对效用函数引入刻画动态选择行为的忠诚度变量,抓住了出行者出行方式选择的关联性。利用了平滑指数计算忠诚度变量,既反映了忠诚度的持续性也考虑了突变性。将忠诚度变量作为影响因素引入模型的可观测效用部分,建立出行者城际出行方式选择Mixed Logit模型。在大量调查问卷基础上,通过对引入前后的模型对比分析计算得出,忠诚度变量加入后,模型中其他的出行影响因素效用强度明显削弱,其产生的正效用证明了城际出行选择是一种带有倾向性的行为反应,具有某种出行方式选择的持续性、依赖性和突变性,说明出行者过往的出行体验对选择心理具有显著的影响,也说明构建的模型很好地还原了出行方式选择的动态特性。Aiming at the rapid formation and development of city agglomerations in China, combining with the characteristics of agglomerations intercity trip, we studied urban agglomerations intercity travel mode choice behavior. Based on disaggregate theory, we introduced the loyalty variable to describe dynamic choice behavior into the utility function and grasped the relevance between trip mode choices. We calculated the loyalty variable by using smoothness index, which not only reflected the persistence of loyalty but also considered the mutability of loyalty. Using loyalty variable as an influencing factor introduced into observable utility of the model, we established traveler intercity travel mode choice Mixed Logit model. Based on a large amount of questionnaires, through comparative analysis between models with and without loyalty variable, it is concluded that the utility intensity of other travel influencing factors of the model is obviously weaken with loyalty variable introduced, its positive utility shows that intercity trip choice is a behavioral response with preferences and has the persistence, dependence and mutability of a certain trip mode choice, i.e. , travelers＇ previous travel experience has a significant effect on choice psychology, and the constructed model can well restore the dynamic characteristics of the travel mode choice.

关 键 词：交通工程 MIXED LOGIT模型 城际出行选择 动态特性 忠诚度变量 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]