杭州市水环境安全评价与预警模型  

The Evaluation of Water Environment Security and Early-warning Model for Hangzhou

作　　者：包晔[1] 蔡建平[1] 沈陆娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江水利水电学院基础部,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第20期148-155,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：杭州市哲学社会科学规划重点课题资助(A12GL04);浙江省水利厅科研项目(RC1304)

摘　　要：水环境安全预警是城市水资源安全利用过程中不可或缺的一个重要环节.根据"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型,在充分考虑杭州市水环境实际状况的基础上,构建杭州市水环境安全评价指标体系;运用物元模型和可拓评价方法建立杭州市水环境安全预警模型.对杭州市历年的水环境实际样本数据进行分析与整理,利用预警模型对杭州市水环境安全现状进行评价,指出了影响杭州市水环境安全的恶化因素,对未来状况作出预警分析,并提出杭州市水环境安全的保障建议.Early-warning of Water environment security is absolutely necessary for the utilization of urban water resources.According to the Pressure-State-Response（PSR） model and the actual condition of water environment in Hangzhou,Hangzhou water environment security index system is built.Based on extension theory and method to establish the water security early-warning model for Hangzhou.Through the analysis of the actual sample data of water environment of Hangzhou,using early-warning model to evaluate the status quo of the Hangzhou water environment security.Pointed out the deteriorate factor of water environment safety of Hangzhou;Make early warning analysis for future;And give advice for protecting the water environment.

关 键 词：水环境安全 评价指标体系 预警模型 杭州市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]