城镇化进程中建设用地需求量预测方法研究  

Methods for predicting demand for construction land during the process of urbanization

作　　者：储卫东[1] 陈江龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省淮安市国土资源局,江苏淮安223005 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2014年第2期79-82,共4页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：江苏省国土资源厅科研项目

摘　　要：城镇化进程中因建设用地的动态性与影响因素的多样性,使得对建设用地需求量进行准确预测难度较大。将多种适用的预测方法结合,是较好的处理方式。本文采用经济地耗预测法、灰色-马尔可夫模型预测法,实现了预测方法的优势互补。对江苏省淮安市未来建设用地需求量的实际应用表明,该方法能有效提高预测精度,具有科学性和实用性。Because of the dynamics and diversity of factors that influence construction land during the urbanization process,the forecasting of demand for construction land is difficult. The problem represents a case that should benefit from anapproach that integrates several forecasting methods. This paper adopts the economic consumption forecasting methodand the forecasting method of the Grey Markov model, and in doing so achieves the complementary advantages of bothprediction methods. The practical application of forecasting demand for construction land in Huaian city, Jiangsu province,shows that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of prediction and that the method has a betterscientific basis and superior practical capability compared with other methods.

关 键 词：城镇化 建设用地 需求量预测 经济地耗 灰色–马尔可夫模型 

分 类 号：P285.1[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]