金砖国家国际资本流动性度量及比较研究  

Measuring and Comparison of BRICS' International Capital Mobility

作　　者：卞学字[1] 范爱军[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,250100

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2014年第5期40-53,共14页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：范爱军主持的教育部规划基金项目"国际技术扩散对中国制造业技术进步和产业结构升级的影响研究"(项目批准号:10YJA790044);范爱军主持的山东省自然科学基金项目"对外直接投资拉动山东省出口增长和贸易结构改善的政策设计研究"(项目编号:ZR2013GM019);范爱军主持的山东大学人文社科青年团队项目"我国外贸结构优化与持续发展问题研究"(项目编号:2014IFYT1405)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：作为衡量开放经济货币政策独立性与资本市场开放度的重要指标,国际资本流动水平受到各国央行与学者广泛关注。跨期经常项目模型对于资本流动性度量具有独特优势,本文将汇率因素引入理论模型对其作进一步完善,并通过构造南非样本的理论经常项目序列与实际序列进行对比分析,证明汇率因素对于准确测度资本流动水平是不可忽略的重要解释变量。对金砖五国的实证估计结果表明:中国的资本流动水平较高,其他四国则普遍较低,笔者结合各国资本项目开放进程对此做了相应解释与横向比较,并在此基础上提出渐进有序地推动我国金融市场开放与资本项目自由化改革的政策建议。As an important indicator of independence of monetary policies and openness of capital markets in an open economy, international capital mobility attracts attention of many scholars and central banks. By extending theoretical intertemporal current account model to include real exchange rate, the authors expect to improve its explanation power in this way. Construction and comparison of the theoretical current account proves that ex- change rate is an important control variable in measuring capital mobility accurately which cannot be ignored in econometrical evaluation. Empirical study of the BRICS indicates that capital mobility coefficient of China is relatively higher than the other four; we then give explanations based on the actual capital account opening process of each country. Finally, the paper summarizes two suggestions to promote financial market openness and capital account liberalization of China.

关 键 词：消费平滑 资本流动 实际汇率 经常项 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F224