2014年9月地方选举后俄罗斯政治形势分析  

Analysis of the Russian Political Situation after Local Elections in September 2014

作　　者：Б.П.古谢列托夫 张广翔[2] 回云崎[3,2] 

机构地区：[1]"尤斯塔"欧洲学院 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究院 [3]延边大学俄语系

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2014年第6期53-61,共9页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

摘　　要：2012年普京出任总统后,其地位得到巩固和加强。2014年9月的地方选举,实质是维护现任行政长官政治地位的选举,政权党为其获胜提供了保障机制并大量提前组织选举。此举目的有二:一来可最大限度地拉开地方选举和联邦选举的距离;二来可使选出的行政长官立即采取新决议并保障其合法性,从而防止经济社会问题加剧。政权党统一俄罗斯党推举的候选人得票率为77%,占绝对优势,而俄联邦其他主要政党"公正俄罗斯"党和俄罗斯联邦共产党等党派的选举基础瓦解、政治影响力下降。2014年的地方选举模式可能导致一系列后果:选举的竞争机制被破坏,政权党因社会经济问题的复杂化而进行新一轮选举,政党体制结构会发生变化,党派精简,对社会政治稳定造成不利影响。在此情况下,政府会寻求一切办法支持普京,确保现有体制的稳定。Putin has solidified his status since he became Russian president in 2012. The local elections in September 2014 were, in effect, to maintain the political status of the incumbent chief executives as the party of political power offered a guarantee mechanism to secure election victory and held most elections in advance. The move came with two objectives： firstly, to adjust the balance of local elections and the federal election to the largest extent; secondly, to enable the elected chief executives to immediately adopt new resolutions and guarantee their legitimacy so as to prevent the escalation of economic and social problems. The candidate from United Russia, the party of political power, won 77% of votes which constituted an absolute advantage, whereas the election basis is dissolving and political influence diminishing for other major political parties such as ＂Just Russia＂ and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. The model of 2014 local elections may lead to a series of consequences： the damage to the competitive mechanism of elections, a new round of elections undertaken by the party of political power due to complicated social and economic problems, the change in the system and structure of political parties and the streamlining of parties. All the consequences exert negative impacts upon social and political stability. Under the circumstances, the party of political power would seek every means to support Putin and ensure the stability of the current system.

关 键 词：选举 行政长官 统一俄罗斯党 政治形势 社会经济问题 

分 类 号：D73[政治法律—政治学]