出口产业结构和收入水平截面关系国际比较研究——借鉴钱纳里方程推论“中等收入陷阱”跨越条件  

An International Comparative Study on the Cross-sectional Relationship between Export Industry Structure and Income Level with Reference to Chenery Model of Deducing ‘Middle-income-trap' Escaping Requirement

作　　者：徐强[1] 

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院,北京100710

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2014年第12期30-45,共16页International Economics and Trade Research

摘　　要：文章借鉴钱纳里方程，在全球范围遴选经济体组构样本：基于样本经济体1980—2012年数据，在货物出口产业结构和相对收入水平之间建立截面回归方程：并基于方程开展赶超度国际比较。结果表明，度量经济体“机电装备出口占比（PME）”赶超程度的指标和经济体相对收入水平最大值及其峰后均值正向关联：该占比赶超度大部分年份正值且其平均值为正．是非发达经济体跨越“中等收入陷阱”的必要而非充分条件；1984后中国PME赶超度持续正值，表明中国出口产业结构符合跨越条件要求。The paper refers to the equation model from H. B. Chenery, selects 40 economies to construct samples and cross-sectional regressive equations between industries＇ proportion in merchandise export and income level based on 1980-2012 data, and analyzes overtaking degrees of key proportions based on regression results. It shows that the value quantifying the overtaking degree of mechanical and electrical equipment industry＇s proportion （PME） in the merchandise export of one economy, positively connects with the historical highest value of relative income level and the average value after the highest-value-year. PME＇s overtaking degree is mainly positive, and is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the non-developed economy to escape ＇middle-income-trap＇. Till now, the overtaking degree of Chinese PME is in conformity with the requirement.

关 键 词：“中等收入陷阱” 机电装备出口占比 PME-PIR截面方程 赶超度 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]