基于D-S证据理论的黄土滑坡参数估计及应用  

D-S Theory-Based Parameter Estimation and its Application in Loess Landslides

作　　者：刘亚峰 刘高[2] 陈龙飞[2] 魏蒙恩 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省电力设计院,甘肃兰州730050 [2]兰州大学土木工程与力学学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2014年第3期446-451,共6页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家重大基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2014CB744701);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目(2022011zr0012/lzu-jbky-2011-12)

摘　　要：岩土参数的不确定性存在,降低了稳定性评价的可靠性,对工程安全、优化设计等方面有重要影响。而D-S证据理论提供了一种解决不确定信息的有效方法,证据理论能够对各自独立的证据加以综合给出一致性结果,并能处理具有模糊和不确定信息的合成问题,可以达到信息互补。适应各领域的人工智能和系统决策、诊断、评估等实际问题和理论基础。结合实际黄土滑坡的滑带土力学参数试验结果,基于D-S证据理论,构造了滑带土力学参数的识别框架、基本可信度分配,从主观和客观上对滑带土力学参数取值进行信度估计,滑坡滑带土力学参数信度估计值与滑带土强度参数反分析结果相吻合,表明基于D-S证据理论的黄土滑坡参数估计的有效性和可行性。Parameters of rock and soil materials are the key factors in the calculation of landslide stability,but these parameters necessarily exist with some uncertainty.This reduces the reliability of stability evaluations and has an important influence on engineering safety,engineering design optimization,and other aspects of engineering.The Dempster-Shafer （D-S）evidence theory is the most efficient method of solving the uncertainty of multiple parameters.It is a kind of expansion of probability theory that is able to not only distinguish between uncertainty and what is unknown but also deal with the uncertainty caused by unknowns.The D-S theory can provide consistent re-sults by means of combining independent pieces of evidence and dealing with synthesis problems of fuzzy and uncertain information.It has been adapted to and achieved sound results for problems in artificial intelligence,system decision-making,diagnoses,assessment,and other practical prob-lems in various fields.In this study,the D-S evidence theory was introduced to select and estimate slip soil mechanics parameters.The parameter selection and the revised counter-calculation of the selected parameters of a typical loess-red layer interface landslide in the Gansu province were con-ducted on the basis of the D-S combination rule.First,combined with the huge actual mechanical parameters of slip soil of the loess landslide by tests,the D-S evidence theory was adopted to D-S evidence analysis of huge mechanical parameters of slip soil of the loess landslide.Thus,the dis-cernment frame and basic probability assignments of the mechanical parameters of slip soil were established from the subjective and objective aspects.Secondly,the D-S combination rule was ap-plied to combine the reliability of multiple test parameters to achieve the optimal mechanical pa-rameters of sliding zone reliability estimates.Finally,a revised counter-calculation of the slip soil mechanics parameters was applied for the demonstration of the obtained parameters.The results show that

关 键 词：D-S 证据理论 不确定性 黄土滑坡 力学参数 

分 类 号：TU41[建筑科学—岩土工程]