人口年龄结构对居民消费影响的空间计量  

Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Impacts of Population Age Structure on Household Consumption

作　　者：孙静[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院信息与统计学院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2014年第5期40-44,共5页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响及对策研究"(13CRK024)

摘　　要：空间计量模型实证人口年龄结构因素对居民消费影响,结果显示:城乡居民消费多存在显著空间正相关,随着经济发展,居民低消费支出聚集区域数量减少,且城镇变化大于农村,东北城镇发展快于西部城镇;西部农村居民消费支出低而居民消费率高,经济发展受限;城乡少儿抚养比高而相邻地区居民消费支出低的地区居民消费支出低,养老不再成为城乡居民消费支出压力;当前抚养比与居民消费率无显著空间相关,老年抚养比对城镇居民消费率有正影响,少儿抚养比对农村居民消费率有正影响。The paper used spatial econometrics to analyze the impacts of population age structure on household consumption. The results showes that the respective consumptions of urban and rural residents have a significant positive spatial correlation with one another. With fast economic growth,the number of low consumer spending gathering areas decreased. The change in urban areas is more significant than that in the rural areas,and the northeastern urban areas develop faster than the western. In the western rural areas,consumer spending is low while the consumption rate is high. The child dependency ratio is high,and in the adjacent low consumer spending areas its consumer spending remains low;the elderly dependency has no longer become expenditure pressure to urban and rural residents. There is currently no significant spatial correlation between consumption rate and the dependency ratio. While the child dependency ratio has positive impact on the rural consumption rate,the elderly dependency ratio has a positive impact on urban consumption rate.

关 键 词：消费支出 消费率 消费差距 抚养比 空间计量 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]