基于马尔可夫预测模型的桥梁养护时机研究  

Research on Bridge Maintenance Time based on Markov Prediction Model

作　　者：张春霞[1] 马少飞[1] 王领[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部公路科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《现代交通技术》2014年第5期84-87,共4页Modern Transportation Technology

摘　　要：文章研究了桥梁技术状况的时变规律,根据模糊评价理论结合马尔可夫过程方法 ,给出了桥梁技术状况和养护费用的预测模型。算例分析表明,该方法可进行桥梁技术状况预测,从而揭示出桥梁技术状况发展规律并预判到潜在的危险,以便在时间和空间上优化分配养护预算,确保桥梁在目标使用期内安全和合理使用。In this paper, the time-varying technical condition of bridge is analyzed. According to the fuzzy evaluation theory and Markov process method, the prediction models for bridge technical conditions and the maintenance cost are got. Numerical examples show that the method can be used to find the development law of bridge technical condition and predict the potential danger, so that the maintenance budget can be optimized as far as possible, bridge safe and rational using are ensured in service period.

关 键 词：桥梁工程 养护时机 马尔可夫过程 预测模型 

分 类 号：U449.7[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]