基于广义均衡模型的我国三大产业从业人员配置分析  

Analysis on the personnel allocation of three major industry in China based on the optimization theory

作　　者：汪星[1] 陶长琪[1] 唐国吉[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学信息管理学院,南昌330013 [2]广西民族大学理学院,南宁530006

出　　处：《决策与信息》2014年第33期118-121,124,共5页Decision & Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71363019,71273122,41461025,71473109);中国博士后科学基金(2014M551854);江西省自然科学基金(20142BAB211019);江西财经大学校级课题(06192015);广西自然科学基金(2013GXNSFBA019015);广西教育厅科研项目(重点项目)(ZD2014045)。

摘　　要：基于优化理论和广义均衡模型，以2005-2012年中国三大产业就业人员数量和收入，以及对GDP的贡献为基本数据，对我国三大产业的从业人员配置和区域流向进行分析，研究使生产总值最大化的配置方案。首先，采用回归分析给出了三大产业的就业趋势，接下来，建立生产总值的优化模型，并结合matlab软件计算出人员在三大产业中的最优配置，最后，采用广义均衡模型模拟就业岗位在区域间的流动，通过数值分析讨论低端制造业、高级制造业、以及服务业在发达地区和欠发达地区之间的就业流向。研究表明：我国需要遏制务农人员锐减的趋势，在此基础上，通过政策引导和专业培训将失业人口流向至第三产业，同时，由于存在就业流动的均衡状态，需要控制好产业转型的时间范围，避免经济发展超前或滞后的现象，在这段时间内引导低端制造业就业岗位从发达地区流向欠发达地区，高级制造业没有区域流动变化，仍然主要保留在发达地区，服务业所产生的就业岗住则集中于发达地区。By using the optimization theory and the equilibrium model, we analysis the personnel allocation of the three major industry and job flow between regions in China based on the personnel quantity and income data of three major industry, and their contribution to GDP between 2003 and 2012. Firstly, we analysis the employment trend of the three major industry by regression analysis, then we establish the optimazition model of GDP and intrduce a computation method with matlab software. Finally, we study the job flow between regions by general equilibrium model, and analysis the job flow of low-end manufacturing industry, advanced manufacturing industry and manufacturing industry between developed and undeveloped regions by numerical analysis. It reveals that in order to improve the GDP of China, the government needs to curb the declining trend in the number of agricultural workers, and lead the unemployed to the third industry through policy guidance and professional training. Because of the existence of equilibrium state in the job flow, the government should adjust to the optimal period in the industry transformation. In this period the government should guide the jobs of low-end manufacturing industry flow from developed regions to less developed regions, the jobs of advanced manufacturing industry stay in the developed area, and the jobs of service industry flow to the developed area. Otherwise the link between economic development and government police would be disjoint, and the regional economy would lag behind.

关 键 词：就业结构 优化模型 广义均衡模型 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]