我国新建住宅长期供给价格弹性估算——基于35个大中城市的实证研究  

The Estimates of China's New Housing Long-term Supply Price Elasticity——based on the 35 major cities

作　　者：叶剑平[1] 孙博[1] 杨乔木[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国房地产（学术版）》2014年第10期3-11,共9页China Real Estate

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目"激活我国商品房租赁市场沉淀房源;优化供给政策研究"(项目编号:11YJA790187)研究成果

摘　　要：大多数住宅模型和政策分析,都直接或间接依赖于住宅供给价格弹性的估计值:为了应对市场需求冲击,是多供给住房还是提高住宅价格?基于Mayo(1981)构建的模型,估算了我国35个主要大中型城市的新建住宅供给价格弹性。根据流量模型,2000-2007年我国的新建住宅价格弹性系数在4-11之间,2008到2013年的价格弹性在5-13之间。而存量调整模型得到了截然不同的估算结果:2008-2013年我国的新建住宅供给价格弹性在1-6之间,更精确的估算出了我国新建住宅供给市场的价格弹性。Most of the residential model and policy analysis, either directly or indirectly, relied on the estimates of the housing supply price elasticity：in response to market demand shock, is it offer more housing or raise housing prices？Based on the model of Mayo （1981）, this article calculated the supply price elasticity of 35 major large and medium-sized cities in our country＇s new housing. According to the flow model of this paper, China＇ s new housing price elasticity coefficient of 2000-2007 was between 4 to 11, and the price elasticity of 2008 to 2013 was between 5 to 13. And the results estimated by the adjustment model was different：in 2008-2013 China＇s new housing supply price elasticity was between 1-6, which was a more accurate estimate of the price elasticity of supply of new housing market in China.

关 键 词：新建住宅 价格弹性 存量模型 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]