运城市过去50a和未来气候变化趋势研究  

Analysis of Characteristics and Rules of Climate Change of Yuncheng City over the Past 50 Years and in the Future

作　　者：曹小虎 

机构地区：[1]运城市水文水资源勘测分局,山西运城044000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2014年第11期13-15,共3页Yellow River

摘　　要：基于运城市1961—2010年的年平均气温和降水量实测数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和线性回归法对其进行了分析,并结合SDSM模型分析了未来两种气候情景下年平均气温和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明:1运城市50 a来年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,且1990年之后的年平均气温明显高于1990年前的,降水量呈下降趋势,但1991—2010年变化趋势较为平缓;2未来两种气候情景下,年平均气温和降水量基本呈上升(增加)趋势,且累计增长率也呈逐渐增大趋势,与B2情景相比,A2情景下年平均气温的增幅更大。Based on measured data of Yuncheng Meteorological Station from 1961 to 2010,the changing trend of average temperature and precipita-tion in the future were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method combined with SDSM model under A2 and B2 scenarios. The results show that a）the average temperature presents a significant upward trend in the past 50 years,and after 1990,the average temperature is significantly higher than before,the precipitation presents decreasing trend in the past 50 years,but the changing trend is slow after 1990 and;b） under A2 and B2 scenarios in the future,the average temperature and precipitation present increasing trend,and the cumulative growth rate also shows the increasing trend at the same time. Compared with B2 scenarios,the rise of average temperature under A2 scenarios is bigger.

关 键 词：未来情景 统计降尺度 SDSM模型 降水量 气温 气候变化 运城市 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]