基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的钻井经济评价  

Economic Evaluation of Drilling Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Method

作　　者：陈达 夏宏南[1] 贺超[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团公司钻井工程重点实验室防漏堵漏实验室,长江大学石油工程学院,湖北武汉430100

出　　处：《辽宁化工》2014年第10期1257-1259,共3页Liaoning Chemical Industry

摘　　要：对石油钻井进行投资决策时,要考虑各方面的风险因素和投资成本,为了降低石油钻井中的投资风险,在钻井之前就能预测到可能的成本,可以采用蒙特卡洛模拟法对钻井投资进行风险预估。本文通过对不同的地层分别运用蒙特卡洛模拟法,在不同的地层建立蒙特卡洛模的模型,并应用matlab模拟软件处理数据解释分析结果,最终得出钻井费用的预测值和误差,为投资决策提供依据。All aspects of risk factors and investment cost should be considered before making investment decision on oil drilling. In order to reduce the investment risk of the oil drilling, Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to forecast the risk of drilling investment. In this article, Monte Carlo models of different strata were established by Monte Carlo simulation method, and Matlab simulation software was used to process the data, forecasting value of drilling cost was obtained, which could provide the basis for investment decision.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛模拟法 随机变量 成本与风险 地层评价 

分 类 号：TE242[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]