基于WSR-灰色聚类综合法的水电工程进度风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Hydropower Project Schedule Based on WSR-Gray Clustering

作　　者：贾立敏[1] 王巧珍[1] 向想想[1] 杨叶[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《水力发电》2014年第12期79-82,共4页Water Power

摘　　要：在水电工程建设进度风险管理过程中,准确的风险评估以及确定重点风险因素对有效控制进度目标至关重要。运用物理-事理-人理系统方法论(WSR)对水电工程建设过程中的进度风险因素进行3个维度上的分类,以此为基础构建灰色评价体系;应用基于三角白化权函数的灰色聚类法对体系中总体目标及各风险因素进行评价,确定工程整体进度的风险等级,找出风险度较高的进度影响因素,并通过工程实例进行验证。The precise risk assessment and the determination of key risk factors are essential for the effective progress target control in the schedule management of hydropower project construction. The WSR system methodology is adopted to classify the risk factors for hydropower construction process on three dimensions, and as a basis, the gray assessment system is then built. By applying the gray clustering method based on Triangle Whiten Function to evaluate the overall objective of system and all risk factors, the risk level of project overall progress are determined and the risk factors with higher degree are also identified. The method is verified by an actual project.

关 键 词：水电工程 进度管理 物理-事理-人理系统方法论 灰色聚类 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]