多因素时变模型在安康大坝中的应用  

Application of Multiple Factors Time-varying Model in Ankang Dam

作　　者：黄华东 郭张军[2] 韩耀铭 杨文曦 

机构地区：[1]南瑞集团公司,江苏南京211106 [2]陕西电力科学研究院,陕西西安710054 [3]安康水力发电厂,陕西安康725000

出　　处：《水力发电》2014年第12期97-100,共4页Water Power

摘　　要：在分析了大坝变形多种影响因素及其影响特征的基础上,利用结合多层递阶方法与多元回归分析方法建立了多因素时变监控模型,根据安康大坝表孔、中孔坝段的变形观测数据,建立了安康大坝变形预测模型。分析表明:多因素时变监控模型较多元回归分析方法具有更高的准确性,可以显著提高大坝变形预报精度。Based on the analyses of the influencing factors and influencing characteristics of dam deformation, a multiple factor time-varying model is set up by combining the multilayer hierarchical analysis method and regression analysis method. The deformation monitoring data of surface spillway and middle orifices of Ankang Dam are used to set up the prediction model of deformation. The analysis results show that the multiple factors time-varying method is more accurate than regression analysis method, and can significantly improve prediction accuracy of dam deformation.

关 键 词：大坝变形 预测模型 时变模型 多因素 安康水电站 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]