近50a玛纳斯河流域上游气候变化的分析  

Climate Change in the Upstream of Manas River Basin in the Past 5 Decades

作　　者：吉磊[1] 何新林[1] 刘兵[1] 唐凯[1] 张少博[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2014年第12期21-27,共7页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC10B01;2014BAC14B01);国家自然科学基金项目(51469028;U1203282);兵团青年科技创新资金专项(2013CB008);石河子大学团队创新项目(2011ZRKXTD-0303)

摘　　要：根据玛纳斯河流域上游肯斯瓦特水文站1959—2008年气温、降水量及1984—2000年蒸发量观测资料,运用线性回归、Pearson相关系数、5 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验以及Morlet小波分析方法对流域上游气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1近50 a玛纳斯河流域上游气候总体趋向于暖湿,其中年均气温显著升高,且年内气温变化存在明显的季节差异,夏、秋两季增温趋势显著,降水量总体也呈增加趋势,但不够显著,且年内分配不均匀,降水量主要集中在春、夏两季;2近20 a流域年蒸发量围绕均值1 651.2 mm上下波动,总体呈微小增加趋势;3气温和降水量在20世纪90年代期间发生由低向高的突变,并且存在明显的年际周期变化。According to observed data of temperature, precipitation series （1959-2008） and evaporation series （1984-2000） at Kensiwate hydrological gauging station in the upstream of Manas River Basin. We analysed the cli- mate change in this region by using linear regression, Pearson correlation coefficient, moving average for five years, Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. Results showed that： 1 ） the cli- mate of upstream Manas River Basin was mostly warm and wet in the past 5 decades. The annu^d average tempera- ture increased remarkably with obvious seasonal difference within the year （temperature increased in summer and autumn）. Precipitation was increasing as a whole but was not significant, and distributed unevenly within the year （precipitation concentrated in spring and summer） ; 2 ） The annual evaporation fluctuated around 1651.2 mm in the recent two decades, displaying a trend of slight increase; 3 ） Temperature and precipitation increased abruptly from low level to high level during the 1990s, and there was an obvious inter-annual cycle change

关 键 词：气候变化 滑动平均 小波分析 突变检验 玛纳斯河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]