人力资本投资、产业结构升级与城市就业的动态关系研究——基于全国270个地级及以上城市的面板VAR模型  

Studies on the Dynamic Relationships among the Human Capital Investment,Industry Upgrading and Urban Employment:Panel VAR Evidence from 270 Cities with the Prefecture Level and Above

作　　者：董芳[1,2] 朱宝树[3] 周江涛[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]滨州学院经济管理系,山东滨州256603 [2]滨州学院黄河三角洲经济研究中心,山东滨州256603 [3]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200062

出　　处：《西北人口》2014年第6期2-8,共7页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：山东省社科规划项目"黄河三角洲高效生态经济区产业结构与劳动力结构协同优化研究"(11DSHZ01);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJC840005);滨州学院博士科研启动项目(2008Y09);滨州学院科研基金重大项目(2011ZDW02)

摘　　要：本文基于2001—2012年全国270个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用面板VAR模型,对人力资本投资、产业结构升级与城市就业之间的动态关系进行面板单位根检验、面板Granger检验、面板数据的脉冲响应和方差分解。结果发现,在我国东、中、西部地区人力资本投资、产业结构升级与城市就业的关系具有差异性,但是不论东、中还是西部地区,人力资本投资对就业的贡献度均大于产业结构升级对就业的贡献度。要推动不同城市实现稳定就业,人力资本投资比产业结构升级政策可能会更加有效。因此,应加大城市的人力资本投资力度,充分发挥人力资本投资的传导机制,实现人力资本投资、产业结构升级与城市就业的良性循环。Based on panel data from 270 cities with the prefecture level and above, this paper studies the dynamic relationships among the human capital investment, industry upgrading and urban employment. By building PVAR model,using panel unit root test, Granger causality test,pulse analysis and variance decomposition methods, research shows that there are obvious differences in the eastern,middle and western region of China. No matter the region of China,human capital investment＇s contribution to the employment is greater than industrial upgrading and might be more effective than industrial upgrading policy. Increasing human capital investment and exerting its transmission mechanism is necessary to realize the virtuous cycle of human capital investment, industrial upgrading and urban employment.

关 键 词：人力资本投资 产业结构升级 城市就业 面板VAR 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F249.21[经济管理—劳动经济]