中国宏观DSGE模型中的税收模式选择及其实证研究  

The Choice of Taxation Model and Its Empirical Analysis of China's DSGE Model

作　　者：朱军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学公共财政研究中心 [2]财政部财政科学研究所博士后流动站

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第1期67-81,共15页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);江苏现代服务业协同创新中心项目(PMS);国家社会科学基金青年项目(11CJY045)的资助

摘　　要：在动态新凯恩斯主义的框架下,本文构建了线性平滑税、累进税、税收预算软约束和税收比例增长模型。研究表明:不同税收模式下的增量税收冲击对各个宏观经济变量的影响存在明显的差异;预算软约束下的税收增长模型更适合中国的宏观财政DSGE模型;政府税收增加会挤入代表性消费者的劳动,从而会增加消费者的消费;货币政策冲击是总产出预测误差的主要波动来源,其次是技术冲击和税收冲击;由贝叶斯冲击的历史分解可知,技术冲击和税收冲击是推动社会总产出波动的主要力量,货币政策冲击和税收冲击是推动消费变动的主要力量。In the framework of New Dynamic Keynesian Model, this paper constructs the linearization taxation model, progressive taxation model, tax model in soft budget constraint and taxation growth model. Then this paper provides empirical analysis by Bayesian estimation method. It is found in this paper as following. Firstly, incremental taxation has obvious different impact on the main macroeconomic variables among different tax modes in China. Secondly, the taxation growth model under soft budget constraint is more suitable for Chinese macro fiscal DSGE model. Thirdly, increasing of government will interrupt in repre- sentative consumer＇s labor input, which lead to increase of consumption. Fourthly, mone- tary policy shock is the main fluctuation source of output prediction error, followed by tech- nology shock and taxation shock. Finally, the result of Bayesian historical shock decomposition that, the technology shock and taxation shock are the main force to promote total output fluctuation, while monetary policy shock and taxation shock are the main driving force for consumption changes.

关 键 词：动态随机一般均衡 价格粘性 税收模式 贝叶斯估计 

分 类 号：F810.4[经济管理—财政学]