改进GTDM-NE模型对我国能源需求规律分析  

Energy demand law analysis of China based on improved GTDM-NE model

作　　者：于凤玲[1,2] 陈建宏[1] 周扬[1] 周汉陵[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]五邑大学经济管理学院,广东江门529020

出　　处：《中南大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第9期3288-3294,共7页Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51374242)

摘　　要：为了探求能源需求与各主要影响因素之间的关系及规律,通过对近年来我国能源需求量以及各影响因素指标的数据统计分析,建立基于改进灰靶决策及非等距(GTDM-NE)预测模型的能源需求规律模型体系。首先对能源需求的各影响因素进行预测,然后根据预测结果,对历年的各影响因素的灰色测度进行计算;其次,根据计算结果对影响因素进行改进灰靶决策分析,并将分析结果与能源需求量对应;最后,利用改进的GTDM-NE模型建立能源需求量与影响因素之间的规律关系式,并且利用这关系式对能源需求量进行预测与分析。研究结果表明:用GTDM-NE模型对能源需求量进行短期预测结果较精确。In order to explore the relationship and law between the energy demand and the major influencing factors, through the analysis of the recent years statistics data of Chinese energy demand and impact indicators, the energy demand system model was established based on the improved grey target decision-making（GTDM） theory and non-equidistant（NE） model. Firstly, the influencing factors on the energy demand were forecasted. Secondly, according to the predicted results, the influencing factors of every year were considered in grey measure calculation. The improved grey target decision was analyzed, and the results were corresponded to the energy demand. The law between the energy demand and the impact of factors was revealed using the non-equidistant forecast model and the amount of energy demand was forecasted and analyzed. The results show that the GTDM-NE model used to predict the energy demand in short time is more accurate than other ways.

关 键 词：能源 灰靶决策 非等距 

分 类 号：TK9[动力工程及工程热物理]