深圳“回南天”天气预报探讨  

EXPLORATION OF MOISTENING WEATHER FORECAST IN SHENZHEN

作　　者：李晴岚 武杨[1] 曹春燕 陈申鹏 徐文文[3] 高鸿 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院,广东深圳518055 [2]深圳市气象局,广东深圳518040 [3]深圳市国家气候观象台,广东深圳518040

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2014年第5期971-976,共6页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：深圳市科技研发资金项目(JCYJ20120617115926138);中国气象局华南区域气象中心科技攻关项目(GRMC2012M15)共同资助

摘　　要：基于"回南天"发生的物理机理,利用深圳2012、2013年冬春之季的空气温度、湿度和建筑地板温度观测数据,探讨回南天的预报方法。首先利用统计回归模型预报下垫面-建筑地板的温度,再根据天气预报计算空气的露点温度,并比较两者的大小,如果建筑地板温度低于空气露点温度,地板表面就会发生水汽凝结(回南天)现象。可为中国南方无供暖地区的回南天预报提供一个新的尝试。Based on the physical mechanism of a type of local weather that usually increases air moisture significantly in great contrast to previously dry condition,this study tends to explore methods to forecast such weather by using the winter and spring weather records and building floor temperature records of 2012 and 2013 in Shenzhen.Firstly,a statistical regression model is used to forecast the temperature of building floor.Secondly,the air dew point temperature is calculated based on the routine weather forecast.By comparing the building floor temperature with the air dew point temperature,the moistening weather will occur if the latter is larger than the former.This study is applicable to forecasting this type of weather in South China where there is no central heating systems for residential households in winter and spring.

关 键 词：回南天 建筑地板温度 空气露点温度 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]