人民币汇率变动是否影响了中国服务出口增长  

The Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB and China's Service Export

作　　者：戴翔[1] 张二震[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国贸学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《金融研究》2014年第11期22-34,共13页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"我国服务出口复杂度变迁及提升问题研究"(14CJY055)资助

摘　　要：本文利用1994—2013年中国经验数据，实证检验了人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国服务出口增长的影响。结果表明：（1）人民币实际有效汇率变动对服务出口增长具有显著负面的滞后影响；（2）分部门来看，人民币实际有效汇率变动对新型服务贸易部门出口增长影响，超过对传统部门出口增长影响。在进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革以及增强人民币汇率弹性进程中，应注意避免汇率过度波动对我国服务贸易发展可能带来的不利影响。适当而稳健的汇率政策，不仅对于扩大服务出口，而且对于服务出口结构优化升级，都有重要意义。By using Chinese empirical data covering 1994 to 2013 and after controlling for other factors, we car- ry out empirical test on the possible impact of the RMB＇s real effective exchange rate on Chinese service trade export growth. The results show that： （1） the RMB＇s real effective exchange rate has insignificant positive effect on the export of service trade growth, but the lagged one period of RMB real effective exchange rate has significant negative influence on the growth of services exports, therefore, real effective exchange rate of RMB changes exert impact on service trade and shows a weak ＂J＂ curve effect; （2） from the service trade sectors of view, the RMB real effective exchange rate, especially the lag effect exerted on services trade export growth, influence much more in the new sector of service trade export growth than in the traditional service trade sector; （ 3 ） human capital has a significant positive effect on the export of service trade, and this effect for the new serv- ice trade sector is much more; （4） FDI has a positive role in promoting service trade export growth, but the role in the traditional service trade export growth is stronger than in the new service trade sector.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率 服务贸易 出口增长 

分 类 号：F752.68[经济管理—国际贸易] F832.6[经济管理—产业经济]