两步法与指数平滑法分析研究  

Comparation Analysis of Exponential Smoothing Method and Two-step Method

作　　者：任喜[1] 赵建军[1] 王毅[1] 张晓斐[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院 [2]92635部队

出　　处：《计算机与数字工程》2014年第11期2063-2065,共3页Computer & Digital Engineering

摘　　要：介绍了指数平滑法和Croston法,分析了指数平滑法和两步法的工作原理,结合备件需求预测问题,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的分析,得到两步法比指数平滑法具有更好的鲁棒性。为进一步研究两步法提供一定的理论基础。Exponential smoothing method and Croston method are introduced, the principle of exponential smoothing method and Croston method are analyzed. Combined with the problem of demand forecasting of spare parts, through the contract of variance between exponential smoothing method and two-step method, we can get a conclusion： two-step method has a better robustness than exponential smoothing method, and provide a theoretical basis for further study for two-step method.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 Croston法 两步法 备件预测 对比分析 

分 类 号：TP301[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]