农业科技投入与农业经济增长的灰色关联分析研究  

Correlative Analysis on the Relationship between Agriculture Technological Investment and Agriculture Economic Growth and Trend Forecast in China

作　　者：高广阔[1] 柳倩倩[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2014年第6期585-589,共5页Technology and Innovation Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"气候变化和中国产业结构调整研究"(10BJY005);2014年度上海市教育委员会科研创新项目"基于新综合指数测度法的生态文明建设指标体系构建研究"(14ZS118)

摘　　要：根据2002—2012年全国统计数据,运用灰色系统理论,对农业研究与开发机构R&D人员全时当量、农业研究与开发机构R&D经费支出、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积和化肥施用量与农业经济增长进行灰色关联研究,结果显示,农业科技投入各个指标与农业经济增长有较强的正相关性,再运用灰色预测方法对农业科技投入和农业经济发展水平进行预测,进一步分析两者的未来发展态势和关联度。基于此,提出了重视农业技术人才建设,加大农业科技资金投入,提高农业现代化水平,构建现代农业产业技术体系等建议。Based on the statistical data about agriculture technological investment and agricuhural economic growth in china during 2002-2012, using the grey system theory, the relationship of the agriculture technological investment and agricultural economic growth is studied empirically. The result shows that a positive relationship exists between the agriculture technological investment and agricultural economic growth, that the investment in agricultural technology and the developing trend of agricultural economy in the next five years is forecasted by grey forecasting method. Based on the above, it is proposed that the government should pay great attention to the training of agricultural talents, increase investment in agricultural science, improve the level of mechanization, irrigation, chemical application of agriculture, construct the modern agricultural industry technology system and improve the agricultural technique extension service system.

关 键 词：农业 科技投入 灰色系统理论 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济]