基于ARCGIS的河南省分区农业旱灾风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Agricultural Drought in Different Districts of Henan Province Based on ARCGIS

作　　者：马建琴[1] 温婷婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水利学院,郑州450011

出　　处：《河南科学》2014年第11期2414-2417,共4页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071025);河南省教育厅自然科学研究基金资助项目(2009A170004);河南省科技攻关基金资助项目(092102310197)

摘　　要：针对以往研究中旱灾发生概率计算精度不高、权重确定不够客观等不足,利用信息扩散理论和农业旱灾风险指数法,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和抗旱减灾能力4个方面选取相应的评估指标,基于ARCGIS平台,对河南省农业旱灾风险进行分区分析.结果表明:濮阳和安阳处于致灾因子高危险区;鹤壁和新乡处于孕灾环境高敏感区;焦作和济源处于承灾体高脆弱区;开封、郑州、洛阳处于高抗旱减灾能力区.综合各影响因素的风险指数,安阳、鹤壁和济源处于农业旱灾高风险区.Problems are found in previous research that it tends to be inaccurate in calculating the occurrence rateof drought,and that the weight determination is not objective to be reliable. In the present study,ARCGIS softwareis used to analyze the risk of agricultural drought in different districts of Henan Province. By applying the informationdiffusion theory and the agricultural drought risk index method,assessment indexes are selected from the perspectivesof disaster inducing factors,hazard inducing environment,hazard affected body,and the capacity of drought relief.The results show that Puyang and Anyang are in the highly risk area of disaster inducing factors;Hebi and Xinxiangare in the highly sensitive area of hazard inducing environment;Jiaozuo and Jiyuan are in the highly vulnerable areaof hazard affected body and that Kaifeng,Zhengzhou and Luoyang are in the highly capable area of drought relief. Insummary,taking all the factors of risk index into consideration,it can be concluded that Anyang,Hebi,and Jiyuanare in the highly risk area of agricultural drought.

关 键 词：农业旱灾 信息扩散理论 变异系数法 风险分析 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]