ECFA框架下海峡两岸贸易发展现状与展望——两岸电子产品互补关系分析  

On Current Status and Prospects of the Trade Development across the Taiwan Straits in the Framework of ECFA:an Analysis on Trade Complementarity of Electronic Products across the Straits

作　　者：李九领[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海关学院经济与工商管理系

出　　处：《海关与经贸研究》2014年第5期66-88,共23页Journal of Customs and Trade

摘　　要：两岸签署的ECFA对区域经济一体化的发展提供了新模式,对两岸经济社会产生了深远影响。本文运用贸易强度指数和巴拉萨模型对ECFA实施后的贸易效应进行了分析,并且以两岸贸易的主力军——电子产品互补关系分析为主线,从两岸电子信息产业贸易的整体依存度、两岸电子产品显示性比较优势指数、两岸电子产品产业内贸易指数和产业间贸易指数等方面分析,两岸贸易之间有很强的互补性。因此,在ECFA框架下,提出进一步完善两岸经贸合作机制,促进两岸产业合作,发展两岸经贸关系的政策建议。The newly signed ECFA provides a fresh pattern for the development of re- gional economic integration, which is foreseen to have a profound impact on the economic and social development of both sides of Taiwan Strait. This paper analyzes the trade effects after the implementation of ECFA by utilizing trade intensity index and Balassa Model. The trade complementarity of electronic products, the dominant part of cross--strait trade, is mainly investigated from the aspects of the trade dependency of cross--strait electronic information industry, the revealed comparative advantage index, the intra-- and inter-- industry trade index of electronic products on both sides of the Strait. It is found that there exists a high de- gree of complementarity in cross--strait trade. Thus, under the framework of ECFA, it is recommended for policymakers to further improve the mechanism of the cross-- strait eco- nomic and trade cooperation, strengthen the industrial cooperation between the two sides, and promote cross--straits economic and trade relations.

关 键 词：ECFA 贸易创造与贸易转移 贸易强度指数 巴拉萨模型 产业贸易的整体依存度 产业内贸易指数 产业间贸易指数 

分 类 号：F426.6[经济管理—产业经济] F724