基于优势分析法的泥石流影响因子相对重要性分析——以白龙江流域为例  

Relative importance analysis of debris flow factors based on dominance analysis:a case study of the Bailongjiang Basin in China

作　　者：马金辉[1] 田菲[1,2] 陈璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室 [2]中国人民解放军61243部队

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第5期722-727,共6页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B06);甘肃省科技重大专项计划项目(1102FKDA007);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2014CB744703);国家国际科技合作专项项目(2013DFE23030)

摘　　要：将白龙江流域划分为1 412个流域单元,以单一子流域为单元,基于前人研究结果与逐步回归法筛选出主沟高差、主沟坡度、距断层距离、滑坡点密度、10 min降雨量、松散堆积物指标、土地利用等7个因子作为白龙江流域泥石流的影响因子,以此建立了对白龙江流域泥石流灾害与影响因子之间的Logistic回归模型.采用优势分析方法计算得出白龙江流域主沟高差、主沟坡度、距断层距离、滑坡点密度、10 min降雨量、松散堆积物指标、土地利用的相对权重分别为22%,20%,17%,14%,11%,8%,7%,得到了白龙江流域泥石流灾害影响因子的作用强度排序,说明白龙江流域地形因子和地质构造因子对泥石流的发生和空间分布起主控作用.基于优势分析相对重要性结果,以及利用泥石流危险性综合指数所得到的研究区泥石流易发性区划图,结果与实际勘察相一致,间接验证了此方法的可靠性.Bailongjiang Basin was divided into 1412 sub basins as basic research units. The factors for debris flows such as the relative height of main valley, slope of the main valley, distance to fault, density of landslide, 10-minute precipitation intensity, loose deposit index and land use, etc. were selected according to the previous research and a stepwise regression analysis. The Logistic regression model between debris flows and the impact factors in Bailongjiang Basin was established by using the above selected factor data of each sub basin. Based on the logistic regression model, the relative importance of each factor to debris flow was calculated by using the dominance analysis and the relative importance of the relative height of main valley, slope of the main valley, distance to fault, density of landslide, 10-minute precipitation intensity, loose deposit index and land use were respectively 22%, 20%, 17%, 14%, 11%, 8% and 7%. To verify the results, a debris flow hazard zoning map of the study area was made using the relative importance as the risk weight and the results showed that the topography and geological structure are the main control factors for the formation and distribution of debris flow in Bailongjiang Basin.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC回归 相对重要性 优势分析 白龙江流域 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]