基于DEA模型和生产函数的泥石流易损性评价  

Debris flow vulnerability assessment based on DEA model and production function

作　　者：顾春杰[1] 孙爽[1] 马金珠[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第5期751-756,共6页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B05)

摘　　要：利用DEA模型对武都区的泥石流易损性进行评估,并将投入产出的思想进一步延伸到C-D生产函数中,对函数进行回归分析估计参数,完善函数后得到易损性的评价结果.将DEA模型和生产函数的评价结果与历史灾情损失作对比分析,确定生产函数结果更具可靠性.得出系统的敏感性对于灾害损失的贡献率高于系统的暴露性的结论,因此不合理的人类活动是造成区域易损性的重要原因,据此对如何减少区域的易损性提出了参考性意见.The DEA model was used to assess the vulnerability of debris flow in Wudu and to further extend the input-output viewpoint to the C-D production function. The parameters of the function were estimated through a regression analysis;then the function was consummated and vulnerability evaluation results obtained. A comparative of the DEA model, the production function of the evaluation results and the historical disaster losses proved that the production function result was more reliable. At the same time, the conclusion was reached that the contribution rate of sensitivity for disaster loss is higher than exposure in coupled human and environmental systems, so it can be said that unreasonable human activities have been an important cause of regional vulnerability. According to the results some suggestions on how to reduce the vulnerability of the region are proposed.

关 键 词：易损性 泥石流 DEA模型 C-D生产函数 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]