近百年广州中心城区(天河)地表年平均气温变化趋势  

Process of the Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature of Guangzhou(Tianhe) over the Last 100 Years

作　　者：汤超莲[1] 陈特固[2] 蔡兵[1] 余克服[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海分局,广州510310 [2]中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广州510301

出　　处：《热带地理》2014年第6期729-736,共8页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划课题(2013CB3956102);国家自然科学基金项目(41025007);广东省民政厅2013年福利彩票公益基金

摘　　要：根据实际资料,首先通过对建筑物查证,新、旧地图对比,实地访问群众,确定了1908-1944年粤海关气象观测场的确切地理位置为23°06'N,113°05'E。通过对气温对比分析、差值订正、回归分析、置信度检验,得出1908-1944年粤海关的地表年平均气温比天河高0.392℃;据1960-1997年同步资料比较得出,作为研究气温的气候变化趋势,1998年以后的天河站地表年平均气温可用番禺站作参考。对订正后具有连续性、代表性、均一性的资料序列进行趋势分析得出,广州中心城区天河1914-2013年的地表年平均气温上升率为1.75℃/100 a,高于同一时段全球地表年平均气温上升率(0.72℃/100 a),原因与20世纪80年代末出现热岛现象及快速城市化有关。The meteorological observation of Guangzhou（station No.59287） began at Guangdong Customs Observatory in 1908,the address of which was previously unkown.Since then the meteorological observatory of Guangzhou has moved for six times.Through the comparative analysis,predecessors considered that there was0.9℃ difference on the annual mean surface air temperature among different meteorological observatories due to the reasons of terrain and environment（for example,Tianhe observatory and Wushan observatory in 1996）.The variation rate of annual mean surface air temperature in Guangzhou was 0.35℃/100 a during 1908-2008 based on inhomogeneity of surface air temperature series.According to the practical data,firstly,this paper found that the exact geographical position of Guangdong Customs Meteorological Observatory was 23°06＇N,113°05＇E by investigating and verifying the buildings,comparing maps in different periods and visiting the masses,and correcting the error positioning of 23°06＇N,113°18＇E in the references.Secondly,it concluded that the annual mean surface air temperature of the Customs Observatory was 0.392℃ higher than that of Tianhe observatory through comparative analysis,regression analysis,contrasting analysis,difference revisal,and confidence test on the annual mean surface air temperature.Thirdly,it considered that the annual mean surface air temperature of Tianhe observatory could be replaced by that of Panyu observatory after 1998 to research the trend of climate change according to comparative analysis on synchronous data during 1960-1997.Through a trend analysis of these continuous,representative,homogeneity annual mean surface air temperature serie,this paper concluded that the rise rate of annual air temperature in Tianhe was 1.75℃/100 a.This rate（recorded from 1914-2013） was higher than that of Global annual mean surface air temperature（0.72℃/100 a） during the same period because of urban heat island effect derived from rapid urbanization of Guangzhou.

关 键 词：地表年平均气温 升温率 天河 

分 类 号：P463.24[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]