在线到移动环境下消费接受行为的演化研究:基于计算实验方法  

Research on Consumption Acceptance Evolutionary from Online to Mobile Environment:Based on Computational Experiment

作　　者：蒋国银[1,2] 马费成[2] 刘行军[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院信息管理学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]武汉大学信息管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2014年第11期97-104,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71101047;70833005);中国博士后基金资助项目(2012T50674);湖北教育厅科技项目(D20132201)

摘　　要：构建实证数据驱动下的多智能体计算实验平台,用于研究从在线到移动环境下消费转移行为的动态演化机理。实验结果表明,所收集的实验数据与经典扩散方程拟合程度高,说明计算模型能反映真实系统的演化过程。广告在产品/服务的市场投放初期效果明显,随着广告强度的增加,消费接受效果并非明显。当市场中出现高消费休眠时,即便采用高唤醒策略,其移动服务消费接受水平也低。当休眠率远大于唤醒率时,市场成熟期后,移动产品/服务接受量下降,而在线产品/服务接受量回升。当唤醒率远大于休眠率时,移动产品/服务接受量水平可达到最大,并维持稳定。该计算模型和实验结果能为管理者提供电子商务行为决策方面的支持。Computational experiment platform is built based on empirical data driven multi-Agent to re- search dynamic evolutionary process of consumer adoption from online to mobile environment. The experi- mental results show that better fineness are existing between experimental data and classic diffusion equa- tion, which indicates the experimental model can be used to simulate real behavior evolutionary process. Brand have significant effect on consumer adoption at the primacy stage, with the increased of advertising intensity, the effect is not evident. When market is with high level of consumption dormancy, even using high-wake strategy, its mobile services is also low levels of consumer adoption. When dormancy rate is much larger than wake rate, the adoption mobile products / services will decline after the stage of market maturity, but adoption of online products / services will recovery. When wake rate is much larger than dormancy rate, adoption of mobile products / services can reach maximum level, and then remain stability. The provided computational models and results will give some reference for decision-making and technical support to regulators.

关 键 词：计算实验 多智能体 消费转移行为 演化 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]