SD在金川龙首矿充填系统稳定性预测中的应用  

Application of SD in stability prediction of filling system in Jinchuan Longshou mine

作　　者：王石[1] 张钦礼[1] 王新民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第9期159-165,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAB32B03)

摘　　要：为解决制约矿井充填系统稳定性发展的难题,以金川龙首矿为例,建立基于系统动力学(SD)的充填系统稳定性预测模型。首先,根据充填系统稳定性不同的投入方式,选取6个子系统和20个影响因子,用层次分析法(AHP)确定其权重。其次,通过参数估计法和专家评分确定SD模型参数,并基于SD模型研究不同投入情况下的稳定性发展趋势。最后,利用Vensim软件获得5个子系统中最主要的影响因子,以及决定系统整体稳定性的关键子系统,并预测金川龙首矿充填系统的稳定性。结果表明,为确保充填系统的稳定,该矿应在稳定性评价水平、设备维护修理水平、关键技术研究水平、料浆跑浆漏浆监测水平及安全素质方面增加投资,需就安全行为水平加强投入和管理。To solve problems which restrict the stability development of filling system in Jinchuan Longshou mine,a SD-based model was built for predicting the stability. According to different investment ways for stability of filling system,6 subsystems and 20 impact factors were chosen. Their weights were acquired by using AHP. SD modeling parameters were determined on basis of parameter estimation method and experts grading method. Stability development trends for different investment situations were studied on basis of the model. Finally,main impact factors of 5 subsystems and key subsystem which influences the stability of whole system the most were obtained,the stability of mine’s filling system was predicted by using Vensim. The results show that for sake of ensuring the stability increased investments should made in improving the stability evaluation level,equipment maintenance and repair level,key technology study level,monitor level of slurry missing and leaking and safety quality,and that safety behavior level must be improved through input and management.

关 键 词：充填系统 系统动力学(SD) 稳定性预测 VENSIM 系统投入 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]