基于主题模型的BBS话题演化趋势分析  

Trends of BBS topics based on dynamic topic model

作　　者：曹丽娜[1] 唐锡晋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2014年第11期109-121,共13页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2010CB731405);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171187;71371107)

摘　　要：互联网引发的舆情问题愈发突出,网络舆情研究已被深度关注.话题演化是网络舆情分析的重要内容之一,本文尝试从话题热度变化和内容变化两方面研究舆情动态.本文选取天涯论坛民生讨论的主要版块——天涯杂谈的首发帖为舆情来源,分析比较一系列主题模型后,建立动态主题模型(DTM).通过挖掘随时间变化的动态话题链,从词语变化的微观角度分析热门事件下公众意见的变迁过程,还原事件的整个发展过程.本文提出话题热度计算方法,通过计算2012全年天涯杂谈版块下所有新发帖的话题热度值变化及可视化分析,总结了BBS话题的三个规律.Along with the increasingly prominent issues aroused via Internet, online opinions are more and more concerned by researchers. This paper attempts to study the evolution of online opinions from two aspects, hot degree and BBS content, respectively. The original posts in Tiaya Zatan board, which is a primary board on social topics in Tianya Club, are collected as a source of online public opinion. By comparisons of a series of topic models, the dynamic topic model （DTM） is chosen. After mining the dynamic topics, the evolutions of public opinions toward hot events are analyzed under a micro perspective of changing words, so as to outline the process of those events. A method is proposed to compute the hot degree of the topic, and then the hot de- gree of all topics on the Tianya Zatan board in 2012 are computed and visualized, from which three rules of the topics are summarized under a macro perspective.

关 键 词：主题模型 DTM 话题演化 天涯论坛 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]