高速公路施工区合流冲突风险阈值界定及交通冲突量预测  

Determination of Merging Conflict Risk Threshold Value and Traffic Conflict Prediction at Freeway Work Zone

作　　者：吴彪[1] 宋成举[1] 戴彤焱[1] 白竹[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江工程学院汽车与交通工程学院,哈尔滨150050

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2014年第4期561-566,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(11YJCZH183);黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究资助项目(12511451);黑龙江工程学院博士科研基金资助项目(2011BJ18)

摘　　要：分析了高速公路施工区合流行为特性,以行车速度与合流角度作为合流交通冲突的表征参数,以冲突时间作为合流冲突风险的度量指标,建立了高速公路施工区合流冲突风险计算模型,确定了高速公路施工区不同安全状态的合流冲突风险阈值.运用灰色理论建立了高速公路施工区合流冲突预测的GM(1,1)模型,并通过合流冲突调查样本数据对该模型进行验证.结果表明:不同安全状态下的高速公路施工区合流冲突风险阈值危险、中等、安全分别为(∞,5)km/h、(3.55,5]km/h和(0,3.55]km/h;GM(1,1)高速公路施工区合流交通冲突量预测模型有效、可靠,满足精度要求.Taking driving speed and merging angle as the characterization parameters of merging traffic conflict, the conflict time as the measurement index of merging conflict risk was proposed and the calculation model on merging conflict risk was established based on analyzing the characteristic of merging behaviour at freeway work zone. The merging conflict risk threshold value of freeway work zone was defined under different safety instances. The GM （1, 1 ） prediction model on merging conflict was developed based on grey theory. And the prediction model was validated using merging conflict sample data. Research results show that the risk threshold value of merging conflict of freeway work zone is dangerous, moderate and security, which is （ oo , 5） km/h, （3.55,5 ] km/h and （0,3.55 ] km/h respectively under different security state, and merging conflict prediction model of freeway work zone based on GM （ 1,1 ） is efficient and reliable, which can meet the accuracy requirement.

关 键 词：交通安全 施工区 合流冲突 风险阈值 灰色预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]