渭河流域气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的定量分析  

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in Weihe Basin

作　　者：郭爱军[1] 畅建霞[1] 黄强[1] 孙佳宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第8期212-220,共9页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51190093;51179148;51179149);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201101043);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20116118110009)

摘　　要：【目的】定量分析渭河流域人类活动和气候变化对径流的影响,为该流域水资源可持续利用与管理提供理论依据。【方法】采用累积距平法和Mann-Kendall法诊断渭河流域径流序列变异位置,以径流变异之前时间段为基准期,变异点之后时间段为计算期,采用累积量斜率变化率比较法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。【结果】渭河流域径流序列分别在1971、1991年发生变异,1972-1991年气候变化对径流减少的贡献率为14.60%,其中降水、蒸发所占比例分别为24.55%和-9.96%,人类活动的贡献率为85.40%;1992-2005年,气候变化对径流减少的贡献率为30.37%(降水占25.00%,蒸发占5.37%),人类活动对径流减少的贡献率为69.63%。【结论】人类活动对渭河流域径流的减少有决定性影响,平均贡献率接近80%。【Objective】The impacts of climate change and human activities on the decreased runoff in the Weihe Basin was studied to provide theoretical basis for use and management of water resources.【Method】Accumulated variance analysis and Mann-Kendall test were used to identify the abrupt change point of runoff,and the method of comparing slope change ratio of cumulative quantity was applied to calculate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by taking the period before the abrupt change point as the base period and the period after the abrupt change point as the measurement period.【Result】In Weihe Basin the abrupt change points of runoff were 1971 and 1991,respectively.During 1972 to 1991,the contribution of climate change was 14.60%,among which precipitation and evaporation were24.55% and-9.96%,respectively.The contribution of human activities was 85.40%.During 1992to2005,the contribution of climate change was 30.37%（precipitation and evaporation were 25.00% and5.37%,respectively）while the contribution of human activities was 69.63%.【Conclusion】Human activities had the most important influence on decreasing trend of runoff with contribution of～80%in Weihe Basin.

关 键 词：渭河流域 径流变化 气候变化 人类活动 累积量斜率变化率比较法 

分 类 号：P331[天文地球—水文科学]