沂沭泗流域年降水和年地表水资源量演变趋势  

Variation trend analysis of annual precipitation and surface water resources in the Yi-Shu-Si Basin

作　　者：张仙娥[1] 刘妞[1,2] 仇亚琴[2,3] 甘永德[2,3] 魏娜[2,3] 韩春苗 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学环境与市政工程学院,郑州450011 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京100038 [4]北京市水文总站,北京100039

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2015年第1期24-28,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301001);流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室2013年自主选题课题(2013ZY02;2013QN02);河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目(2011A570008);河南省高校青年骨干教师资助计划项目;华北水利水电大学高层次人才科研启动资助项目

摘　　要：基于沂沭泗流域1956年-2010年的水文资料,运用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、累计距平和小波分析方法对沂沭泗流域年降水、年地表水资源量的演变趋势、变化过程和趋势及周期性进行了分析。结果表明:沂沭泗流域近55a内年降水、年地表水资源量变化趋势基本一致,整体上均呈减少趋势但不显著,预计未来10多年内仍会减少;年降水和年地表水资源量大体经历了丰枯交替5个变化阶段,年地表水资源量减少的趋势比年降水量减少的趋势稍明显;年降水变化具有4a、8a、15a和27a的主周期,年地表水资源量变化具有4a、14a和27a的主周期。趋势表明,未来10多年内沂沭泗流域年降水。Based on the hydrological data in the Yi-Shu-Si Basin from 1956 to 2010,the linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,cumulative departure method,and wavelet analysis were applied to analyze the variation trend and periodicity of annual precipitation and surface water resources.The results showed that the annual precipitation and surface water resources have the similar variation trend with an overall insignificant decreasing trend,and decrease continuously in the future;the annual precipitation and surface water resources have experienced four periods with wet and dry ones in turn,and the decreasing tendency of annual surface water resources is higher than that of annual precipitation;and annual precipitation has main cycles of 4years,8years,15 years,and 27 years,and annual surface water resources have main cycles of 4years,14 years,and 27 years.The trend analysis showed that annual precipitation and surface water resources continue to decrease in the next decade in the Yi-Shu-Si Basin.

关 键 词：沂沭泗流域 年降水 地表水资源量 变化趋势 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 累计距平和 线性倾向估计 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV213