基于改进灰色关联分析的泥石流危险性评价  

Risk evaluation of potential debris flow based on the improved grey correlation method

作　　者：曹洪洋[1] 王禹[1] 满兵 

机构地区：[1]石家庄经济学院勘查技术与工程学院,石家庄050031 [2]河北省地矿局水文工程地质勘查院,石家庄050021

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2015年第1期91-94,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41301015);国土资源公益性行业科研专项项目(201011003);河北省科技支撑项目(11237174)

摘　　要：为了对龙门山断裂影响区域的泥石流次生灾害进行危险性评价研究,应用灰色关联度方法分析了影响区内45条泥石流沟一次泥石流最大冲出量、流域面积、流域相对高差、植被覆盖率、松散物质储量、纵比降和24h最大降雨量7个影响因子权重,应用此权重替代传统灰色关联分析中的均值权重,建立了泥石流危险性评价模型。模型评价结果表明,松散物质储量和流域面积在影响因子中所占权重较大,泥石流危险性评价结果与参考资料评价结果基本一致,因此改进的灰色关联度评价法可为震区泥石流的防治提供有力支持。The risk evaluation of the secondary debris flow disaster caused by the earthquake in the Longmenshan fault area was conducted in this paper.The grey correlation method was used to analyze the weights of seven impact factors,including the maximum output of debris flow,watershed area,elevation difference,vegetation coverage,loose material reserves,channel gradient ratio,and maximum precipitation in 24 hours.The weights were used to replace the average weights in the traditional grey correlation method and build the risk evaluation model of debris flow.The results showed that the weights of watershed area and loose material reserves are greater than those of other factors.The evaluation results were in line with the actual situation which indicates the improved grey correlation method can provide firm support for the prevention design of debris flow.

关 键 词：龙门山断裂 泥石流灾害 改进灰色关联度法 危险性评价 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]