地震预警工程的若干问题探讨  

Discussion on Some Issues of Earthquake Early Warning Engineering

作　　者：张晁军[1] 陈会忠[2] 蔡晋安[2] 侯燕燕[1] 许洪华[1] 李卫东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [2]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036

出　　处：《工程研究（跨学科视野中的工程）》2014年第4期344-370,共27页JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING STUDIES

摘　　要：地震预警是国内外地学研究的热点,是复杂的社会工程。地震预警工程是跨学科的工程,特别是涉及自然科学和社会科学的结合。本文就地震预警的一些基本概念和由地震预警原理带来的工程上的若干问题,进行了比较详细的讨论。介绍了地震预警的概念和种类、地震预警的模式、地震预警的能力,强调了地震预警盲区、受益区、无效区的不同能力,提出了地震预警第一报的重要性。指出了地震预警技术不仅带来减灾效果,还催生了密集地震观测网,突破了传统地震观测网的观测方式和处理方法,将为传统的地震观测学和实时地震学带来创新和变革。论述了当前地震预警技术的局限和存在的问题。结合国内外地震预警的现状,提出了地震预警工程需要注意的问题及需要研究的方向,指出地震预警是复杂的社会工程,首次提出了地震预警的社会容忍度及社会对地震预警容忍度的差异,同时探讨了地震预警效益和风险。Earthquake early warning （EEW） is a hot topic in domestic and foreign research. It is a complexsocial engineering. Earthquake early warning engineering is an interdisciplinary engineering, particularly in thecombination between natural science and social science. In this paper, some problems about some basic conceptsof earthquake early warning and some problems brought by the earthquake early warning theory, are discussed indetail. This paper introduces the concept and types of earthquake early warning, earthquake early warning model,ability of earthquake early warning and it also emphasizes the different ability of earthquake early warning, benefitarea, blind area of invalid area and points out the importance of the first report of earthquake early warning. Thispaper points out that the earthquake early warning technology not only brings mitigation for disaster, but alsostimulates a dense seismic observation network, which is a breakthrough compared to traditional observationmethods and processing methods and will bring innovation and reform to the traditional seismic observation network,especially for real-time seismology. This paper discusses the current earthquake early warning technologylimitations and problems. Combining the current situation of domestic and international earthquake early warningsystem, the paper puts forward the need to pay attention to the earthquake early warning engineering and strategyfor research, points out that the earthquake early warning is a complex social project. The difference between socialtolerance of earthquake early warning and the society’s tolerance to earthquake early warning is first proposed.The risks and benefits of earthquake early warning are also discussed in this paper.

关 键 词：地震预警工程 地震报警 密集地震预警网 预警容忍度 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]