河北省梨果生产影响因素评价指标体系及实证分析  

The Evaluation Index System and Empirical Analysis of Influential Factors of Pear Production in Hebei Province

作　　者：杨念[1,2] 王蔚宇[3] 王志丹[4] 吴敬学[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]河北金融学院,河北保定071000 [3]河北农业大学,河北保定071000 [4]辽宁省农业科学院农村经济研究所,辽宁沈阳110161

出　　处：《北方园艺》2014年第23期184-187,共4页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金资助项目(CARS-26-23);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2014M561115);辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点资助项目(L11AJL007);辽宁经济社会发展资助项目(2014lslktziyyjj-57)

摘　　要：采用灰色关联法分析了影响河北省梨果生产的主要因素。结果表明:关联程度依次为有效灌溉面积>梨果种植面积>成灾面积>耕地面积>农药使用量>农业基本建设投资>农民人均年纯收入>人均地区生产总值>用工量>农用机械总动力>化肥使用量。通过构建两两比较判断矩阵,分析出在11个因素中,有效灌溉面积、种植面积、成灾面积、耕地面积、农药使用量、农业基本建设投资6个因素的影响度总和达到了88.27%,是影响河北省梨果产量的主要因素。Grey Correla（ion Model was used to analyze the main factors affected pear production in Hebei province. The results showed that,the influences in order were：effective irrigation area〉cultivated are〉inundated area〉agricultural acreageS〉amount of pesticide〉investment of agricultural basic construction〉annual net income per farmer〉GDP per capital〉amount of labor）total power of agricultural machinery〉amount of fertilizer. Pair-wise comparison judgment matrix was adopted to analysis that in the 11 factors,the total influence degree result of effective irrigation area,cultivated area,inundated area,agricultural acreage;amount of pesticide and investment of agricultural basic construction was up to 88. 27% ,the six factors were the main factors influencing pear production in Hebei province.

关 键 词：河北省 梨果生产 影响因素 评价指标体系 实证分析 灰色关联模型 两两比较矩阵 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学]