考虑天气因素的含风电场电力系统的概率潮流分析  

Weather Factor Based Analysis on Probabilistic Load Flow of Power Grid Containing Wind Farms

作　　者：张楷旋 陈建英[2] 郭创新[1] 范承志[1] 张俊超[2] 邓孟华[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]国网上海市电力公司市南供电公司,上海市徐汇区200233

出　　处：《电网技术》2014年第12期3418-3423,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2013CB228206);国家自然科学基金项目(51177143);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZ12E07002)~~

摘　　要：概率潮流是分析电力系统不确定性的重要工具。为了有效研究不同天气状况下含风电场电力系统的潮流变化情况,引入三状态天气模型模拟天气状况对架空输电线和风力机强迫停运的影响,并推导出计及风力机出力与风速非线性关系和风力机故障的风电场出力概率模型,以更准确地描述风速波动较大时风电场输出功率的概率特性。采用基于半不变量的概率潮流法求解问题,通过Gram-Charlier级数和Von Mises法分别得到待求状态变量的连续部分和离散部分。对IEEE RTS 24节点系统的测试表明:计及风力机出力与风速非线性关系和风力机故障的风电场出力模型是必要且合理的,天气因素对含风电场电力系统的潮流概率分布有重要影响。Probabilistic load flow （PLF） plays an important role in the analysis on power grid uncertainty. A wind farm model considering the forced outage of wind turbines and the nonlinear relationship between wind speed and wind power output is proposed. To research the power flow variation in power grid containing wind farms under different weather situations effectively, the three-state weather model is lead into to simulate the impacts of weather situation on the forced outage of overhead transmission lines and wind turbines, and a probabilistic wind farm output model, in which the nonlinear relation between wind farm output and wind speed and the faults of wind turbine are taken into account, is derived to describe the probabilistic characteristic of wind farm output under obvious wind speed fluctuation more accurately. This problem is solved by cumulant based PLF method, and utilizing Gram-Charlier series and the von Mises method the continuous part and discrete part of the state variable to be solved are obtained respectively. The simulation results of modified IEEE RTS show that it is necessary and reasonable to take the nonlinear relation between wind turbine output and the wind speed and the fault of wind turbine into account; the weather factor greatly affects the power flow distribution in the power grid containing wind farms.

关 键 词：概率潮流 半不变量 三状态天气模型 风电场 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]