信贷周期与经济周期关联性研究：中日比较及其启示  

The Relevance of Credit Cycle to Business Cycle:A Comparison of China and Japan

作　　者：于震[1] 张超磊[2] 朱祚樟 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院 [2]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2014年第12期35-40,64,共7页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国信贷周期及其宏观审慎监管研究”(项目编号:12CJY109);国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国现阶段潜在产出及产出缺口变动特征研究”(项目编号:11CJL012);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国信贷周期研究”(项目编号:11YJC790113);吉林大学哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目“国际金融理论创新与国际货币体系改革研究”(项目编号:2012FRTD02)的资助

摘　　要：数次金融危机表明,信贷周期及其内在顺周期性在宏观经济波动中扮演着重要角色,是金融系统性风险的主要来源,也因此成为宏观审慎监管的中心目标。信贷周期与经济周期的关联性作为判断信贷顺周期程度的表象指标反映了金融监管防范和化解系统性金融风险的能力。中国与日本虽同为银行主导型金融结构国家,但在二者信贷顺周期性的调控方面却存在一定差距。中国信贷顺周期现象显著,而日本在2003年后则出现了阶段性信贷逆周期情况。这不仅体现了日本金融监管体制逐步向宏观审慎监管过渡的卓越成效,同时也表明了中国在未来宏观审慎监管框架的构建和完善过程中可以借鉴日本的成功经验。The previous financial crises demonstrated that endogenous pro-cyclicality of credit cycle play the important role in macroeconomic volatility,which makes it the main source of financial systemic risks and the essential target of macro-prudential supervision.As an indicator reflecting the pro-cyclical extent of credit,the correlation between credit cycle and business cycle also reveals the capability of financial supervision for preventing and resolving financial systemic risks.China has a bank-oriented financial system,which is similar to Japan at the point.However,China is not as good as Japan in controlling the pro-cyclicality of credit cycle.The credit cycle becomes counter-cyclical after 2003 in Japan but is always significantly pro-cyclical in China.These show that the gradual transformation of Japan's financial regulation to macro-prudential pattern makes a great success and provides some insights for China in this field.

关 键 词：日本 信贷周期 宏观经济周期 宏观审慎监管 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F833.13