高堆石坝中期度汛挡水风险率估计  

Water containment risk estimation during interim flooding for high rock-fill dams

作　　者：张超[1] 胡志根[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610072 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水科学进展》2014年第6期873-879,共7页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279137);成都勘测设计研究院科研资助项目(P228-2014)~~

摘　　要：在考虑高堆石坝坝体中期临时挡水度汛不允许坝面过水条件下,综合考虑坝前洪水位与防洪度汛高程的随机性,构建高堆石坝工程中期度汛挡水风险数学模型。针对堆石坝施工系统的特点,考虑各月停工天数与日平均上升速度的随机性,建立了防洪度汛高程仿真计算模型。基于Monte-Carlo方法原理,耦合水文、水力和施工随机因素对风险模型进行求解,并研究了日均控制最低上升速度这一施工可控指标对风险率的影响。通过大渡河流域某大型工程实例分析表明,风险模型与计算方法可行、有效。In this paper, a mathematical model is designed to estimate the water containment risk for high rock-fill dams during interim seasonal flooding based on the condition that the water must not flow over the top of the dam, and other stochastic factors such as the level of the floodwater in front of the dam and the high water level during flooding. The characteristics of rock-fill dam construction systems, the number of days each month when the dam is under maintenance, and the stochasticity of the average speed of the increase in water level per day are considered for designing a model to calculate the simulated height for flood prevention during interim flooding. Based on the Monte Carlo method, the created risk model is solved by linking stochastic elements from hydrology, hydropower, and construction. Further, the influence of the controllable construction indicator, which is the minimum average daily rising speed, on the risk rate is researched. The feasibility and effectiveness of the risk model and the calculation method are demonstrated through the analysis of Changheba hydropower station in the Dadu River basin in Siehuan, China.

关 键 词：高堆石坝 中期度汛挡水风险 MONTE-CARLO方法 防洪度汛高程 施工随机因素 

分 类 号：TV551.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]