中国贸易政策的制度质量分析——基于制度有效性和稳定性视角  

An Analysis on Institutional Quality of China's Trade Policy——Based on the Perspective of Institutional Effectiveness and Stability

作　　者：郭苏文[1] 黄汉民[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学经济学院,重庆401120 [2]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《经济经纬》2014年第6期52-57,共6页Economic Survey

基　　金：重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(13SKC12);西南政法大学青年项目(2012-XZQN20)

摘　　要：笔者借助于扩展的引力模型，利用占中国出口额90％以上的97个代表性国家或地区的1997年～2011年的面板数据对我国贸易政策的制度质量进行了实证考察。研究结果表明：我国现行的贸易政策总体上是有效的，除了在1995年～1997年和2004年～2006年2个时段发生了较大的波动外，我国的贸易政策保持了相对稳定。贸易政策的制度有效性和稳定性对贸易发展有显著的促进作用：通过为贸易主体提供良好、稳定的政策预期而对贸易产生的直接促进作用；通过促进经济增长而对贸易产生的间接促进作用。Starting from two institutional dimensional property-institutional effectiveness and stability, institutional quality of China＇ s trade policy is evaluated in this paper firstly. Then, with extended gravity model, using panel data covering 1997-2011 of 97 representative nations whose imports account for 90% of China＇ s total export, we probe into the effects on institutional quality of China＇ s trade policy empirically. Finally, we put forward some corresponding recommendations on how to improve institutional quality of China＇ s trade policy based on what we have studied above. The results show that： China＇ s current trade policy in general is effective and keeps relative stability except two periods of 1995-1997 and 2004-2006. Institutional effectiveness and stability of China＇ s trade policy play a significant role in improving the development of trade. The effect manifests itself through two channels： providing favorable and stable policy expectation for traders and promoting economic growth.

关 键 词：贸易政策 制度质量 制度有效性 制度稳定性 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]