当代中国家庭生育性别偏好的影响机制研究——基于六普数据的实证分析  

Mechanism on Sex Selection and Childbearing Behavior in Chinese Families:A Study Based on 2010 Census

作　　者：李树茁[1] 胡莹[1] 闫绍华[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]山东财经大学公共管理学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人口与发展》2014年第5期69-76,共8页Population and Development

基　　金：第六次全国人口普查委托课题

摘　　要：提出了一个家庭出生性别选择和生育行为的分析框架。利用2010年中国第六次全国人口普查千分之一抽样数据,建立了当代中国家庭生育选择的多层线性Logistic回归模型。生育男孩概率与母亲个人属性、家庭结构和婚姻模式相关。选择男孩的概率与家庭已生育女孩个数正相关,与已生育男孩个数负相关。人口流动与迁移有减弱家庭男孩偏好的趋向。提高城镇化率和工业化水平比单纯提高人均GDP对家庭生育决策行为具有更大影响。A framework for analysis of families＇ sex selection and fertility behavior is proposed. Data from the 1‰ sample of the sixth census of China completed in 2010 are used to investigate factors influencing the reproductive behavior of Chinese families with multiple hierarchical logistic regression. It is found that the probability of having a son is correlated with the mother＇ s personal characteristics, family structural variables, and marriage patterns. The parity of a son＇ s birth is positively correlated with the number of daughters previously born and negatively correlated with the number of previously born sons. Population marriage transition and movement could reduce the son＇ s preference. Increasing China＇ s urbanization and industrialization is likely to have more influence on families＇ reproductive decision -making behavior than simply increasing the GDP per capita.

关 键 词：生育选择 出生性别比 性别失衡 第六次人口普查 多层回归模型 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]