“稳增长”与“控杠杆”双重目标下的货币当局最优政策设定  

Optimal Policy Setting of Central Bank under Dual Goals of Maintaining Stable Growth and Controlling Leverage

作　　者：胡志鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学五道口金融学院,100033

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第12期60-71,184,共13页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：近年来,在物价形势稳定、国际收支趋于平衡、经济潜在增速下行、杠杆率不断快速攀升的背景下,"控杠杆"与"稳增长"同时成为货币当局的现实目标,给其政策操作带来了较大挑战。本文通过构建一个涵盖居民、企业、金融机构和货币当局的DSGE模型来考察"稳增长"和"控杠杆"双重目标下货币当局最优政策设定。基于数值模拟分析,本文考察了不同政策参数设定下模型稳态和动态的变化,以及货币信贷外生冲击对模型的影响。结果表明,最优货币增速本身受到多方面因素制衡,单纯依靠货币当局使用货币政策工具来降低杠杆率的效果并不理想,且货币当局政策效果缺乏稳定性。因此,当前有必要减轻货币当局控杠杆的压力,通过包括结构性改革在内的多种措施来化解高杠杆率。＂ Controlling leverage＂ has become one of the key goals of China＇s central bank in recent years, along with ＂maintaining a stable growth＂. This paper builds a DSGE model incorporating financial sector and central bank, which optimizes broad money growth under the dual goals of ＂controlling leverage＂ and ＂maintaining a stable growth＂. This paper finds that the optimal money growth under the dual goals is affected by various factors, and the effects of controlling leverage by relying solely on central bank may not be satisfactory and often unstable with high sensitivity to changes in other parameters. As a result, relying monetary authority alone to pursue these two goals at the same time would increase the risk of policy error. Other measures, including structural reforms, are necessary to effectively resolve the elevated leverage ratio.

关 键 词：杠杆率 最优货币增速 DSGE 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]