服务业生产率真的低吗?  

Is Productivity of Service Sector Really Low?

作　　者：庞瑞芝[1] 邓忠奇[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济与社会发展研究院,邮政编码300071 [2]中国人民大学商学院,邮政编码100872

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第12期86-99,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"世界产业发展新趋势及我国培育发展战略性新兴产业跟踪研究"(12&ZD068);社科基金重大项目"新产业革命的发展动向;影响与中国的应对战略研究"(13&ZD157)的资助

摘　　要：发展服务业尤其是现代服务业已然是经济转型和产业升级的重要抓手,然而关于服务业生产率(效率)的论断,目前学界占主导地位的仍是"鲍莫尔-福克斯假说",即认为服务业生产率较低,大力发展服务业将拉低总体经济增长率。为此,本文对方向距离函数的方向选择进行方法创新,采用1998-2012年中国省际面板数据对服务业和工业的生产率及其增长情况进行测算。研究显示:服务业生产率(效率)平均高于工业,但TFP增长稍逊工业。不过,近年来服务业TFP增长有赶超工业的趋势。即"鲍莫尔-福克斯假说"和国内关于服务业低效率的提法在现阶段的中国并不成立。此外,工业化程度对生产率有正向影响,但对TFP增长影响不大。Development of service industry, especially the modern service industry, has been a key of economic transformation and industrial upgrading. However, Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis still dominates in academia, i. e. low productivity in service sector, and vigorously developing service sector will pull down the overall economic growth. Therefore, with the aid of the innovation of methodology we use the inter-provincial panel data from 1998 to 2012 to measure productivity and its change in service and industrial sector. Conclusions show： service sector productivity （efficiency） is higher than the industrial sector＇s on average, but TFP growth in service sector is less. However, in recent years, the service sector TFP growth has a tendency to catch up with industrial sector, which suggests the Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis does not hold in current China. In addition, industrialization has a positive impact on productivity, but little effect on TFP growth.

关 键 词：服务业效率 生产率 方向距离函数 环境约束 工业化进程 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济]